出口转内销：动能二号反卫导弹即将试验
根据Bill Gertz的报道，中国即将试验新型地基反卫导弹“动能二号”（原文Dong Ning显然是typo）。根据美国得到的情报，试验至迟从9月起就开始准备，预计将在11月上旬到中旬进行（美国大选后）。DN-2具有攻击高轨道卫星（如 GPS卫星和地球同步轨道卫星）的能力，杀伤方式为直接撞击。但由于撞击试验将造成巨量的空间碎片，估计不会真的进行撞击。也可能用反导试验来测试，就如同2010年那次SC-19中段拦截反导试验。http://freebeacon.com/china-to-shoot-at-high-frontier/
China to Shoot at High Frontier
U.S. Intelligence: China to conduct test of more powerful anti-satellite weapon capable of hitting GPS, spy satellites, but after U.S. election
BY: Bill Gertz
October 16, 2012 5:00 am
China’s military is set to conduct a test of a new and more capable anti-satellite missile that United States intelligence agencies say can knock out strategic satellites in high-earth orbit, according to U.S. officials.
However, a recent intelligence assessment said the test of the Dong Ning-2 direct ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon is being delayed in an apparent effort to avoid upsetting President Barack Obama’s reelection bid, said officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Intelligence reports from September and this month revealed China will test fire the new DN-2 missile from a ground base sometime in early to mid November.
The missile is described by intelligence agencies as a high-earth orbit interceptor designed to destroy satellites by ramming them at high speeds. The intelligence reports called the new missile a strategically significant counterspace weapon, said the officials familiar with the reports.
Testing a high-earth orbit anti-satellite missile would represent a major advance in China’s satellite-killing capability, which has been underway for more than a decade. High-earth orbit, also known as geosynchronous orbit, is the location of major communications and navigation satellites, which orbit at a distance of between 12,000 miles and 22,236 miles from earth.
China’s last ASAT test in 2007 destroyed a low-earth orbit weather satellite about 558 miles in space, causing an orbiting debris field of tens of thousands of pieces of metal that U.S. officials say will threaten orbiting satellites and human space travelers for 100 years.
U.S. officials said it is unlikely China will conduct an impact test of a kinetic kill vehicle against an aging weather satellite as occurred in 2007, although the possibility of a second, major debris-causing test cannot be ruled out.
Instead, officials said the test most likely will be a demonstration of a precision-guided direct ascent missile flying out tens of thousands of miles.
“If the United States loses the strategic high ground of high-earth orbit , we are in real trouble,” said one U.S. official.
U.S. Global Positioning System satellites, used for both navigation and precision missile guidance, are located in medium-earth orbit, or about 12,000 miles, and thus would be vulnerable to the new DN-2.
Whether or not the test is successful, development of the new high-altitude DN-2 ASAT reveals that China’s military is planning for future high-orbit space warfare despite seeking international agreements banning weapons in space.
China’s January 2007 ASAT test drew protests from the United States and other spacefaring nations, who saw it as a major threat to satellites used for both military and civilian purposes. That test also produced tens of thousands of pieces of space debris which threaten satellites.
A second possibility is the DN-2 missile test will be fired against a target missile, as occurred in 2010 as part of a joint Chinese ASAT-missile defense test.
Pentagon spokesmen declined to comment on the DN-2 ASAT program.
Michael Pillsbury, a former Reagan administration defense policymaker, stated in a 2007 report to Congress that Chinese military writers advocated covert deployment of sophisticated anti-satellite weapons system like the kind now being developed by the People’s Liberation Army for use against the United States “in a surprise manner without warning.”
“Even a small scale anti-satellite attack in a crisis against 50 U.S. satellites—assuming a mix of targeted military reconnaissance, navigation satellites, and communication satellites—could have a catastrophic effect not only on U.S. military forces, but on the U.S. civilian economy,” said Pillsbury, currently with the Hudson Institute. Chinese military writings also have discussed attacks on GPS satellites that are located in high-earth orbit, he stated.
ASAT a top-secret program
China’s anti-satellite missile system is a key element of the communist state’s growing arsenal of asymmetric warfare weapons, and remains one of Beijing’s most closely guarded military secrets.
Defense officials have said that with as few as 24 ASAT missiles, China could severely weaken U.S. military operations by disrupting global communications and military logistics, as well as by limiting celestial navigation systems used by high-technology weapons. Such an attack also would severely degrade U.S. intelligence gathering efforts against global targets, a key strategic military advantage.
A U.S. official familiar with reports of the ASAT test said China’s delay in conducting the test until after the Nov. 6 election is a sign Beijing wants to help President Obama’s reelection campaign. “It implies they’d rather have him reelected,” said the official.
The Obama administration has adopted conciliatory policies toward China’s military buildup and its large-scale human rights abuses. Critics say the administration also failed to hold Beijing accountable for its unfair trade practices and currency manipulation.
The administration’s questionable policies were revealed by a 2009 State Department cable that quoted Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as saying, “How do you deal toughly with your banker?”—a reference to China’s potentially coercive leverage over the United States through its large holdings of U.S. debt securities.
Richard Fisher, a Chinese military affairs specialist, said little is known publicly of the DN-2 missile. However, the DN-2 may be China’s designation for an ASAT missile and kill vehicle combination mounted on launchers dubbed KT-2, or KT-2A. This ASAT weapon is based on DF-31 or DF-31A road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles, respectively.
“ASATs derived from the KT-2 and KT-2A space launch vehicles have the potential to reach high earth orbits used by many strategic U.S. surveillance, communication, and navigation satellites,” said Fisher, with the International Assessment and Strategy Center.
Fisher said in 2002, during a military show in China, the KT-2A was touted by Chinese officials as having a 2,000-kilogram payload that could reach high-earth orbits.
“Since its appearance a decade ago, the KT series of space launch vehicles presaged what we now know, that a key Chinese strategic goal has been to deny outer space as a sanctuary to support American military operations,” Fisher said.
A KT-1 microsatellite launcher was displayed at the Zhuhai air show in 2000, and “it was fairly obvious that this could become the basis for an ASAT, and it was used as the basis for the SC-19 ASAT demonstrated successfully in January 2007,” Fisher said.
Because China will not join a verifiable space control agreement, “Washington has little choice, if it is to continue to deter China militarily, but to build far greater redundancy, passive and active defenses for outer space,” he said.
China ASAT caused space debris
U.S. officials estimate that China’s 2007 ASAT test that destroyed an aging weather satellite in low-earth orbit now accounts for 45 percent of all space debris in low-earth orbit.
After a year of stonewalling by China on the test, an official U.S. demarche, or protest note, was sent to Beijing in January 2008. According to a copy of the note made public by Wikileaks, the protest warned the Chinese government, “Any purposeful interference with U.S. space systems will be interpreted by the United States as an infringement of its rights and considered an escalation in a crisis or conflict.”
“The United States reserves the right, consistent with the Charter and international law, to defend and protect its space systems with a wide range of options, from diplomatic to military,” stated the protest, made by then-U.S. Ambassador to China Clark Randt.
A joint State Department-Pentagon report to Congress on export controls made public in April states that China is “developing space-based methods to counter ballistic missile defenses of the United States and our allies, including anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons.”
“As China advances in operational space capabilities, it is actively focusing on how to destroy, disrupt, or deny U.S. access to our own space assets,” the report said.
China is developing and refining its ASAT weapons as part of a “multi-dimensional program to limit or prevent the use of space-based assets by potential adversaries during times of conflict,” the report said.
“In addition to the direct-ascent ASAT program, China is developing other technologies and concepts for kinetic and directed energy for ASAT missions,” including electronic jamming of satellite communications and lasers that disrupt satellites, the report said.
ASAT weapons “have significant implications for anti-access/area-denial efforts against the United States in Taiwan Strait contingencies,” the report said. Those weapons and capabilities are being developed by China as a means to force the U.S. military out of Asian waters and territory and make it more difficult for U.S. forces to get into the region during a conflict, such as a defense of Taiwan. Other anti-access area denial weapons include anti-ship ballistic missiles, cyber warfare capabilities, and submarines.
Defense Intelligence Agency director Lt. Gen. Ronald L. Burgess told Congress in February that “China successfully tested a direct ascent anti-satellite weapon (ASAT) missile and is developing jammers and directed-energy weapons for ASAT missions.”
Burgess said that as “a prerequisite for ASAT attacks, China’s ability to track and identify satellites is enhanced by technologies from China’s manned and lunar programs as well as technologies and methods developed to detect and track space debris.”
Another ASAT test by China will likely undermine the Obama administration’s controversial space arms control proposal, introduced in January. Many in the Pentagon oppose the International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities over concerns it would place limits on U.S. space capabilities.
U.S. lagging in counterspace
Despite China’s continuing development of space weapons, the administration has done no research or development into so-called counterspace weapons and other capabilities that could deter China from its ASAT and anti-satellite laser and jammer arms, according to military officials. The opposition is based on the administration’s preference for arms control negotiations and agreements as a major element of its U.S. national security policies, the officials said.
Frank Rose, deputy assistant secretary of state for arms control, said in a speech in April that the space code of conduct would include legally nonbinding “transparency and confidence-building measures.”
However, a Pentagon Joint Staff assessment of the space code of conduct concluded that U.S. adherence to the code’s provisions would hurt U.S. space operations in several areas.
The Pentagon’s National Security Space Strategy from 2011 makes little mention of counterspace weapons. It states that U.S. policy is “to dissuade and deter” others from developing space weapons, without providing specifics.
The Pentagon indirectly demonstrated an ASAT capability in 2008 when it used a modified ship-based SM-3 anti-missile interceptor to shoot down a falling, low-earth orbit spy satellite that was considered a danger because its fuel tank might have passed through the atmosphere and landed on earth.
Cables detail PRC’s first ASAT test
According to a classified Jan. 12, 2010, State Department cable made public by Wikileaks, China conducted its most recent ASAT test on Jan. 11 of that year.
According to the cable, an ASAT missile designated SC-19 was fired from China’s Korla Missile Test Complex and successfully intercepted a CSS-X-11 medium-range ballistic missile launched from the Shuangchengzi Space and Missile Center.
The two missiles were tracked by U.S. missile warning satellites to an intercept point at an altitude of about 155 miles in space.
Until then, the SC-19 had been used previously to boost China’s first successful direct-ascent anti-satellite intercept on Jan. 11, 2007, when a missile rammed into China’s FY-1C weather satellite.
“Previous SC-19 DA-ASAT flight-tests were conducted in 2005 and 2006,” the 2010 cable said. “This test is assessed to have furthered both Chinese ASAT and ballistic missile defense technologies.”
The cable contained a U.S. protest note to China on the 2010 test seeking an explanation for Chinese officials about the purpose of the test and “what steps were taken to minimize the creation of orbital debris.”
The cable said that since the 2007 ASAT test, the United States had urged China not to conduct further space weapons tests.
An earlier cable revealed that U.S. intelligence agencies had advance word of the 2010 space weapons test, and noted that China was not expected to provide notification in advance of the test, which proved accurate.
Other State Department cables revealed conflicting statements from Chinese officials on whether China planned to conduct future ASAT tests. Chinese Foreign Ministry official He Yafei unequivocally stated to U.S. officials in June 2008 that China would not conduct future ASAT tests. In July, China Lt. Gen. Zhang Qinsheng said there were no plans for an ASAT test in the near future.
可喜可贺 这是真的还是假的~ 一个月左右，可见分晓 是不是那个“伤心可怜饿死我”基地发射啊？ 美称中国试射DN2反卫星导弹 24枚即可重创美军 哪位大侠最好翻译了，看英文太累！ google自带的翻译太差了。 老兄的天气预报，提前了接近半年啊！
不过还真是有！
我们都喜欢。 为毛老外能这么早就知道我们的动向，是不是该查下内鬼了。 看来中科院真是来洗地的啊 PBS 发表于 2013-6-9 23:11 static/image/common/back.gif
零部件都是外国来的，人家一分析就知道你要干什么了。
凭人家提供的部件的水平和数量，人家就知道你的 ...
窝巢，看完心里瓦凉瓦凉的啊:'( 伊贺双刀流 发表于 2013-6-10 21:31 static/image/common/back.gif
窝巢，看完心里瓦凉瓦凉的啊
楼上那位大虾的东西，您还是打一折听为好。
希望国可以通过卫星照片来发现可能的反导试验。人家那几百枚卫星不是用来玩的。动能二号那么大的导弹是很难藏的。不一定非要通过内鬼才能侦察到。
乌克兰的坦克设备是给外贸型坦克的，和ZTZ99没什么关系。移花接木是楼上那位大虾的看家本领。
洋大人随便编一个排名，这位可找着机会踩中国了。看看“从第十到第一分别是：中国99式主战坦克、印度阿琼主战坦克”就知道这个排名是什么货色了。ZTZ99A2(大改2型）用的是1500马力发动机，俄罗斯乌克兰没有能力生产这个档次发动机，更不用提和之配套的变速箱了。ZTZ99配套的发动机和变速箱和德国倒是有些渊源。
如果你多看有看忙总和晨枫的帖子，就知道中国和俄罗斯（乌克兰）的相对军工水平是怎样的了。除少数领域外，（核潜艇最明显；飞机和发动机正在接近和赶超；）中国基本全面赶上或超过俄罗斯水平。比如WS-15档次的超大推力涡扇，美国有，中国在研，其他国家没有。又比如中段反导，美国和中国在第一梯队，俄罗斯在遥远的第三位。美国对中国航天领域实施严格禁运，中国从那里进口零件呢？再比如航空电子和军用雷达,特别是舰用相控阵雷达，中国都是领先俄国的。
当然我们得承认，我们和美帝比起来还是有很大差距的。我们快速追赶俄罗斯原因一是军工的努力，二是苏联解体后我们搞来不少好东西，三是俄国长期停滞不前。
当然不管中国军工有多大的进步，楼上那位大虾都会告诉你：是假的，是编的，全是进口零件，中国要完蛋了。
好好看看PBS发的帖子，就清楚他说的话可信度有多高了。 PBS 发表于 2013-6-9 23:11 static/image/common/back.gif
零部件都是外国来的，人家一分析就知道你要干什么了。
凭人家提供的部件的水平和数量，人家就知道你的 ...
你拿阿琼出来比。。是说笑话咩？
99的1500马力。。你去乌克兰这一台一样的来。。。。
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